Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG)

In my mind, it doesn’t take a lot to put Chipotle back on track. In my opinion it never really derailed, but in the eyes of the fickle analysts, it has. Chipotle has an incredibly efficient box-box scaling model, high margins that can take a punch or two, and a largely untapped global market outside of the United States, where more than 95% of their stores are located.

Following the intra-day dump of Chipotle on October 30th, I picked up shares for the price of $30 a piece. I find it laughable that commenters claim that Chipotle is finished. Like there is not a world outside of the borders of the U.S of A. I don’t expect much in the 2025 fiscal year results. Revenue will grow at a subdued rate. Margins will likely contract. Comparable sales are going to decline for the first time since 2016. Much of this was priced in the second it became apparent to the market, many months back.

As for 2026, I see it probable that an improvement on 2025 results will occur. From there, I think the narrative will eventually shift back to business as normal. Maybe next year, maybe the one after that. Maybe the crowds shouting “Slop” will get bored and move onto the next struggling industry, who knows. I don’t invest on two-year time horizons. I am not skilled, nor lucky enough to do so. I have heard that longer time horizons improves the odds of getting lucky. Lord help me. At $30 per share, I think much of the downside is accounted for.