Anglo American (AAL.L)
Published 2026-03-17 • by thisisnotinvestmentadvice
Thesis Summary
Anglo American's ownership of De Beers is a value trap. The diamond market faces structural collapse due to lab-grown competition, mirroring historical pearl price declines. Assets are likely significantly overvalued on the balance sheet.
Quantitative Overlay
Detailed Deep Dive
Since we originally wrote this post, De Beers, the South African based mining company that has dominated the market for natural diamonds has been put on the market by Anglo American, with Botswana, who own 15% a likely buyer of a larger stake. However, despite a book value of around $5bn, most analysts think that they would be lucky to get half that.
Moreover, with revenue down 44% in Q1 and inventory of around $2bn (i.e. unsold stock in a market that doesn’t seem to want the product), Anglo American is looking rather like Morton Plant and his wife’s string of pearls.