Microsoft (MSFT)
Published 2026-03-17 • by compoundwithai
Thesis Summary
MSFT might appear cheap due to the extension of server useful lives, leading to lower depreciation and higher reported earnings. This could mask the increasing AI capex and potentially inflate valuation.
Quantitative Overlay
Detailed Deep Dive
I was in my home gym, training.
It was late..
Because when you’re a father, the rule is simple:
You train early.
You train late.
Or you don’t train.
Between sets, my phone lit up.
A message in our investor group:
> _MSFT looks cheap here._
I thought, yes , it looks cheap compared to its usual valuation.
Then I remembered something.
And I replied:
> _They’re making it look cheaper…_
It wasn’t just Microsoft.
Alphabet.
Meta.
Amazon.
They all extended the useful lives of their servers.
That means:
* lower depreciation
* higher reported earnings
* and a stock that can look cheaper than it really is
Funny timing, right?
AI capex is exploding…
…and suddenly servers last longer.
Just a coincidence, I’m sure.