Staar Surgical (STAA)
Published 2026-03-17 • by yetanothervalueblog
Thesis Summary
Cautionary tale on rejecting M&A premiums. Shareholders rejected a $30.75 buyout; post-rejection, fundamentals have weakened and the stock price has collapsed to ~$18, suggesting shareholders erred in rejecting the 'bird in hand'.
Quantitative Overlay
Detailed Deep Dive
The first is STAA.I wrote about STAA late last year, so I’ll refer you there for a full breakdown but a quick recap is they had entered an agreement to besold for $28/share to Alcon. Shareholderswere not a big fan of the deal, as the company’s stock had been hammered by recent results, and shareholders thought the company was selling at a cyclical low. Alcon eventually bumped the deal price to $30.75/share even after STAA couldn’t find a better bidder, but shareholders eventually rejected that bid too and the deal was called off. Management then basically handedcontrol of the company to the largest shareholder.
Did shareholders make the right choice here? It’s too early to make a firm judgement here; the company hasn’t reported a single quarter under the new board’s stewardship yet! However, I’d suggest that current results leave a lot to be desired. Their Q4 results were weak, and while the company is “optimistic” about the business in 2026, my math suggests it takes a veryrosy outlook / rebound over the next few years to even begin to compensate for the lost “bird in hand” of the $30.75/share Alcon bid. And that’s just talking business fundamentals; on a mark to market, with the stock currently trading for ~$18/share (roughly flat with where it was before the merger was announced), I would certainly want a mulligan on taking the Alcon bid if I was a shareholder!