Altria Group, Inc. (MO)

Published 2026-02-05 • by invariant

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Thesis Summary

Detailed Deep Dive

Yes, more volume declines within the segment are to come. Legacy volumes will not be spared; however, rest assured that plenty of pricing will occur, as users switch to pouches. The trajectory of on! may not be as rosy as it once was, given new competition and increased promotion. However, Altria will surely apply pressure of its own with the recent authorization of on! Plus, which was fast-tracked following last quarter’s note, which stated:

> _on! Plus’s advanced launch was in defiance of the FDA, indicating a more aggressive approach by Altria to capitalize on the category’s growth. Whether the FDA takes action against this launch is as uncertain as whether Altria will roll the product out nationally in the near term. While Altria had initially stated that the product would be launched in a few select states, the product became readily available online on on!’s standalone website, with shipping available to the majority of states. It appears on its standalone website for on!, Altria has stopped selling on! Plus in the United States, indicating potential apprehension. Avoiding FDA hostility may be for the best in this instance, as one of the most significant recent developments is the FDA’s announced pilot program to expedite PMTA reviews concerning pouches, which on! Plus is included. With the prospect of determinations being made by year-end, the US market could be shaken up significantly with on! Plus, European Velo Mini, and ZYN Ultra