Thinkific (THNC)
Published 2026-03-16 • by canadianvalueinvestors
Thesis Summary
Thinkific is trading close to its cash value with no debt. AI concerns have impacted tech valuations. The author believes mgmt will make changes & the downside is limited. They are long THNC.
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As we covered in Fallen Darlings in November, we think the set up of Thinkific today is interesting and we remain long. It is also a good case study. AI has created widespread concern in various tech names, including Constellation and Duolingo (no positions, evaluating).
We always keep in mind expectations and value. Duolingo reported Q3 revenue growth of 41% in to ~$270MM, a 36% increase in users to 50+ million, and yet there was a 8% decline in the stock price at time of writing.
In Thinkific’s case, if they were to drop another 50% they would be trading roughly for the cash on hand and no debt, with the business (that is making interesting changes) for free. This is not a stock with high expectations built in, which we always like. We also think management knows something needs to be done this year and will do their best to make changes accordingly.